Revista de comunicación política e institucional

No. 58 (2024): El poder de las narrativas en los gobiernos, medios y las plataformas digitales
Articles

Re-election of president in Brazil: how much does the government evaluation matter for keeping in office

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.56151/maspoderlocal.230
Emerson Urizzi Cervi
Universidade Federal do Paraná.

Keywords

  • intenção de voto,
  • avaliação de governo ,
  • Brasil,
  • presidente,
  • Reeleição
  • voting intention,
  • government evaluation,
  • Brazil,
  • president,
  • Re-election

How to Cite

Urizzi Cervi, E. (2024). Re-election of president in Brazil: how much does the government evaluation matter for keeping in office. Más Poder Local, (58), 99-120. https://doi.org/10.56151/maspoderlocal.230

Copyright (c) 2024 Of the author or authors

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Abstract

The paper analyzes the correspondence between government evaluation and voting for presidents who are re-election candidates in Brazil. The four cases between 1998 e 2002 are included. The objective is to identify whether the perspective of retrospective voting in presidential disputes with a candidate for re-election applies in the Brazilian cases. The assumption present in the literature is that well-evaluated governments are more likely to remain in power and governments with a negative evaluation are more likely to be defeated. The results show expected correlations in the Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Lula, who had highly evaluated governments when they were re-elected, and for Jair Bolsonaro, who presented a negative government evaluation when he was defeated. But, it does not apply to Dilma Rousseff, with the most positive evaluation of the presidents in re-election and without significant associations with the voting for her.

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